The Third Offset Strategy

A return to ungentlemanly warfare — why SOF, not technology, is the only viable third offset strategy to counter China

Why You Should Buy This Book

The Chinese military of today is a completely different animal from the PLA of just ten years ago. Stealing advanced US blueprints for stealth fighters, bombers, hypersonic missiles, ships, submarines, and ICBMs, the PLA has built a "knock-off" conventional order of battle with sufficient mass to check-mate the US military in the first island chain.

Traditional third offset strategy thinking is all about technology as the solution to mass. This 1980s thinking completely misses the point. No one gains from a shooting war. Unlike the Cold War Soviet economy, the US and Chinese economies are deeply intertwined.

So what advantage does the US have? Special Operations Forces. Over the past twenty years, US SOF has perfected human network-centric warfare against non-state actors. Low-profile, small-footprint, clandestine forces arrayed against the vulnerable long-term human networks servicing Xi's top priority — the Belt and Road Initiative — provides the US with a cost-effective, durable means to keep the PRC in check.

This book explains how to achieve this.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1

Introduction — A Return to Ungentlemanly Warfare

What do special operations in contested and denied environments in Asia look like in the context of great power competition?

Washington is very trend-conscious. The new acronyms on everyone's lips: GPC, MCW, TOS. Great Power Competition will inevitably lead to Major Conventional War, which can be won by the Third Offset Strategy. GPC, MCW, TOS promise a return to what America does best — big wars.

It is certainly counter-cultural to suggest that a coming MCW will not depend on US conventional capabilities. But as this book details, conventional warfare is a secondary consideration in GPC because China, Russia, Iran, and al Qaeda choose not to practice it. GPF are not where the main effort lies. They are a blocking force. The tackling, penetration, and scoring remains a task for special operations forces.

It follows that if great powers engaged in competition with the US refrain from use of GPFs in favor of the full gamut of unrestricted methods available to them — which they have — then USSOF must remain the primary driver of American efforts to counter malign influences flooding the world.

About the Author

Adam C PhD (Cantab) served as a Principal Strategist for USSOCOM where he was involved in designing clandestine war plans for special mission units. He earned a PhD under Sir Harry Hinsley (wartime codebreaker and official historian of British Intelligence in WWII) at St John's College, Cambridge. Over more than a decade he served with distinction as a professor of strategy at the United States Air War College, the United States Marine Corps Command and Staff College, and the United States Naval War College. At Newport, Adam was Director of a classified US Navy intel-planning-ops cell dedicated to assessing future enemy WMD concepts of operations — unique in the US Government in combining activities across the J2, J3, and J5 for US Strategic Command, USSOCOM, and US Pacific Command.

M@contexr.com

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